This is the second in a 3-part series on SA Horse Racing Statistics for the 2019/20 Season! In this blog, The Punter analyzes SA Trainers and Jockeys to follow.
Knowing which trainer / jockey partnerships are most reliable can put the odds in your favour when punting on horse racing.
Racing is a game that rewards knowledge and form study. If you’re new to The Punter’s philosophy on SA Horse Racing, you can read more about it here: 3 Pillars of Punting for Profit.
To help punters out, I’ve done an in-depth review of the statistics on the best trainers and jockeys to follow so far this season.
My analysis will focus on the partnerships likely to deliver more value for the regular punter. In particular, we’re looking for trainers and jockeys to follow with the most consistent win and place strike rates.
But before we dive in, here’s a few things to keep in mind when interpreting these SA Horse Racing statistics:
- Stats are merely a guide, and can never substitute for in-depth form studying. Every race has its own unique conditions and there are many factors to take into account.
- We can expect these stats to change as the season progresses. So far, we’ve completed the Cape Summer season, with the bulk of the Highveld and KZN Champions seasons ahead of us. Stats for certain trainers and jockeys will benefit from the shift in focus to these provinces.
- The stats are useful for straight bet and all-to-come players, but also valuable for exotic bet construction. We all need to decide where to go light in our PA’s and Jackpots, so it’s helpful to know which trainer and jockey combo’s are proving most reliable.
Ready? Let’s start by taking a look at Trainer / Jockey combo’s in order of win strike rate this season.
Trainers / Jockeys to Follow by Win %
The Trainer / Jockey partnerships with the best win rates are listed in the table below. To get a decent sample size, the table only includes partnerships of 50 rides or more.
I’ve used shades of blue as a visual aid to show low and high numbers or percentages.
As we can see, the best trainer / jockey win strike rate is Anton Marcus for Brett Crawford, at 33% from 63 rides. One in every three winners is therefore the gold standard for consistency so far this season. This duo also has the highest exacta strike rate, at 52%.
It’s worth emphasizing that the Alan Greeff / Greg Cheyne partnership has achieved a competitive 30% win and 45% exacta strike rate from 301 rides. This is around 5x more rides than Crawford / Marcus.
So on the question of who’s most regularly bringing home the winners in volume, the stats favour the prolific PE pairing of Greeff/Cheyne. Punters should also note Greeff’s secondary partnership with Teaque Gould (26% exacta strike rate).
Crawford stable spreading the success
Brett Crawford is the only trainer with 3 entries in the table overall, with two of those in the top 7.
The second partnership is with Greg Cheyne (22% win and 31% exacta strike rates).
Interestingly, the partnership with stable jock Corne Orffer is the least consistent of the three (13% win, 27% exacta). But it is the most lucrative partnership however, at just over R5 million in stakes.
The industrious Mr Kennedy
Let’s also give credit where it’s due to top jockey Warren Kennedy, with 3 partnerships in the Top 10. His best win strike rate is for trainer Paul Peter at 24%. That’s 1 in 4 winners on a big sample of 286 rides. They’ve also made the exacta on more than 1 in 3 rides (36%).
Kennedy’s other top partnerships are with Highveld trainer Candice Dawson (21% win, 38% exacta), and KZN trainer Gavin van Zyl (20% win, 31% exacta).
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More SA Horse Racing Trainer / Jockey stats to consider
The below table broadens the stats for us to consider. We’ll use these to discuss some more good finds for punters.
Cape combo Candice Bass-Robinson and Aldo Domeyer have brought home 1 in 4 winners, with a 39% exacta strike rate, and 45% tote favourite strike rate. They did the Cape summer business with a stakes to runs average of R45 000+.
The Mike De Kock and Callan Murray partnership have brought in the big stakes at R5.6 million so far. Their stats are also at the upper end of consistency, with 22% wins, 33% exacta finishes, and a 38% tote favourite strike rate.
Flamingo Park duo Sarel Von Willingh Smit and appy Dylan Lerena have run up a commendable 25% win strike rate (1 in 4 winners) and a solid 57% record on tote favourites.
That covers most of the partnerships at the upper end of the table. Now for some deserving credit to trainers and jockeys with multiple entries in the table overall.
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Notable Jockeys and Trainers with multiple entries in the table
- Richard Fourie‘s most consistent partnership is with Yvette Bremner (21% win, 31% exacta). Their 40% tote favourite strike rate is comparable to Bremner and Wayne Agrella‘s 41%. Fourie’s partnership with top trainer Justin Snaith is however the most lucrative in the land so far this season at R7 million (18% win, 33% exacta, 34% winning tote favourite).
- Marco van Rensburg is the only other jock with 3 entries in the table overall (besides Kennedy). His most consistent partnership is with Gavin Smith in PE (17% win, 29% exacta, 39% winning favourite). His 2nd best is with Lucky Houdalakis on the Highveld (15% win, 27% exacta, 33% winning favourite). The third is with Kimberley’s WGC Miller (12% win, 29% exacta, 30% winning favourite).
- Rising appy star Luke Ferraris‘s most consistent partnership with Garth Puller in KZN (19% win, 33% exacta and tote favourite). The partnership with Sean Tarry comes in at 15% win, 30% exacta, and 33% winning tote favourite. Tarry also has comparable stats with Raymond Danielson.
- Trainer Johan Janse Van Vuuren has handy partnerships with both Keagen De Melo (19% win, 40% exacta, 50% winning favourite) and Chase Maujean (17% win, 26% exacta, 57% wfav). Both these jocks enjoy their best stats with Van Vuuren, but have other decent partnerships. De Melo is the stable jock for Dean Kannemeyer (17% win, 30% exacta, 34% wfav). And Maujean does duty in PE for Tara Laing (14% win, 29% exacta, 33% wfav).
Winning tote favourite strike rates
In the table above, you’ll notice I’ve included a column on winning tote favourite strike rates.
All Trainer / Jockey combo’s with a winning favourite percentage of 40% or higher are highlighted in the darkest shade of blue.
You can read a very detailed analysis on Tote Favourite Strike Rates in Part 1 of this series, Who’s bringing home the Tote Favourites?.
Ready for more SA Horse Racing analysis?
I hope you enjoyed reading this blog as much as I enjoyed preparing it for readers, clients and subscribers.
You can read more in Part 3 of The Punter’s 3-part series on SA Horse Racing stats: Top SA Racehorse Breeders to Follow 2019/20.
All the Best,